Alejandro Gutierrez

Alejandro is a Nestment home buying planner based in SF and analyzes trends for our in-house team of planners and coordinators. He holds a degree in economics from Harvard and is currently building an off-grid eco resort with his mother and aunt in his home country of Costa Rica.

Alejandro’s analysis is based on this recent podcast

👉 https://open.spotify.com/episode/2jnQAl9yxy3RQ6hyANxo1t?si=cd94da19f2d04865 

Market snapshot

• Home price growth is cooling — up just 2.7% year-over-year, the slowest pace since August 2023.
  
  • Implies the market is adjusting to affordability pressure, but prices are still holding up. We’re in a slowdown, not a decline.
• Transactions are super low — fewest existing home sales through May since 2009.
  
  • This isn’t a flood of distressed sales. It’s more of a standoff. Buyers can’t afford today’s rates, and sellers don’t want to give up their sub-4 percent mortgages. (This is where our strategies can really add value)
• Inventory is increasing, but still low compared to historical norms.
  
  • Rising supply is healthy, but it’s not enough to tip the market in favor of buyers yet. Prices likely won’t drop meaningfully without a lot more inventory.
• Months of supply is up to 4 to 4.5, the highest since early 2020.
  
  • Quick breakdown:
    
    • Less than 6 months = seller’s market (prices tend to rise)
    • Around 6 months = balanced market
    • More than 6 months = buyer’s market (prices tend to fall)
  • Supply is rising, but we’re still below the buyer’s market threshold. This helps explain why prices are still inching up in many areas.
• New home prices are down year-over-year, mostly because builders are offering rate buy downs and other incentives
  
  • This is one part of the market where buyers might actually get value, especially if builders are helping with financing.

Alejandro's take

I think now is actually a good time to buy 🤠

Here’s why...

• A lot of investors are sitting on cash waiting for rates to drop. When they do, we’ll likely see a surge in demand, bidding wars, and people overpaying again
  
  • Buying now might help avoid that future competition.
  • Some data points that are interesting:
    
    • Investors are holding record levels of cash — nearly $7 trillion in money market funds as of early 2025, with many earning ~4% and waiting for more favorable buying conditions.
    • Wall Street and institutional players expect a surge of capital into markets once rates drop, which could drive up competition and asset prices.
• Trump’s new tax bill and the 3 trillion dollars in new spending will likely push inflation higher in the short and medium term. That makes it less likely the Fed will cut rates aggressively any time soon.
  
  • Sub-5 percent mortgage rates may not return for a while, if at all. So waiting might not pay off.

See if now is a good time to buy for you

_{Nestment, Inc. does not guarantee and is in no way responsible for the accuracy of the information provided in this blog post. All information is provided “AS IS” and with all faults. Data presented here may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.  While the information on this site is about legal and tax issues, it is not intended as legal or tax advice or as a substitute for the particularized advice of your own attorney and tax professional.}